Schroders, the global investment firm, has modelled a specific number: food prices in advanced economies could double within about a year if this El Nino runs as strong as feared. news.com.au laid out the full chain behind that figure this week, a Super El Nino building over the eastern Pacific, war closing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Russia bombing Ukraine’s grain harvest, and the fertiliser input urea already doubling in price, in Global food crisis: how El Nino and war could double grocery prices. I read it twice, because a number that big deserves a second look. Then I looked at what it actually means for anyone in Australia with a spare square metre of soil.
What’s Actually Driving The Number
The chain is long, but it isn’t complicated. War closed the Strait of Hormuz in February, choking oil, fertiliser and aluminium supply. Russia is now bombing the ports where Ukraine’s grain harvest gets loaded, and that harvest was already smaller after a year of fuel and fertiliser shortages. On top of that, a Super El Nino is forming over the Pacific, already driving heatwaves across Europe and the US and floods in China. Urea, the fertiliser most grain and vegetable growers depend on, has already doubled in price this year. Put it all together and Schroders reckons the modelling points to a doubling of food prices over the next year or so. The World Meteorological Organisation and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation are both backing the same warning. I went and checked both statements rather than take a news article’s word for it.
Why A Backyard Bed Doesn’t Ride That Same Curve
None of that price chain runs through a backyard. What it runs through is the shop shelf, because a supermarket’s supply chain moves on diesel, fertiliser and freight, and every one of those just got dearer. A bed of silverbeet doesn’t pay freight, whether it’s growing in Brisbane, Bendigo or Hobart. It doesn’t carry a war risk premium on shipping insurance, and it doesn’t buy urea by the tonne. My compost bin sits a long way outside the Strait of Hormuz, and so does yours. That’s the whole point worth taking from the article: the risk lands on what you buy, not on what you grow.
What’s Worth Planting Now, Wherever You Are
I checked today’s prices before writing this, so start with the vegetables that are dear now and easy to grow. Loose garlic is running $29.99/kg at Aldi, $35.01/kg at Coles and $37.60/kg at Woolworths this week. One bulb costs a few dollars, splits into eight or ten cloves, and every clove grows a full head. July is exactly the right window for it across the cool and temperate zones, and most of the subtropics can still get it in. Warmer zones have better options anyway: sweet potato and onion are both sitting under $6/kg today, both about as low maintenance as vegetables get, and both happy in a subtropical winter bed. Check what’s worth planting in your zone this week rather than guessing from a national headline. I put another round of garlic in myself this week, but that’s one bed among the thousands this article is really about.
The Actual Payoff
This is exactly why I built the price tracker on gardenbuddy.au, so you can see what’s worth growing before a headline like this one turns into a real number on your own receipt. Have a look at gardenbuddy.au/features, no cost to browse it, and pick your crops from today’s prices, not from the panic. A veggie bed doesn’t read shipping news. It just quietly gets on with it either way.
