Zero. That’s the 7 day rain total I’m looking at for Perth, Fremantle and Mandurah right now. Rain probability sits at 6 percent, average max is climbing to 32.9°C, average min holding at 18.7°C overnight. I’ve stopped hoping for a shower and started planning around the fact there won’t be one.
Mulch like it’s the only defence, because this week it is
I reckon mulch is doing more work than any of us give it credit for right now. With 0.0 mm on the radar and highs pushing 32.9°C, bare soil in my raised beds would be baking dry by Wednesday. I’m going thick this week, 7 to 10cm of straw or sugarcane mulch over anything exposed. It’s the cheapest insurance I’ve got against a dry run like this one, and it buys my soil time between waterings.
Deep water less often, not more
My instinct in a dry week is to grab the hose every evening. I’m fighting that instinct hard. A short daily splash only wets the top centimetre of soil, and with the min still sitting at 18.7°C overnight, that shallow moisture is gone before my plants get any benefit from it. I’m switching to two deep soaks a week instead, enough to reach 15 to 20cm down, then letting the mulch hold it there. If I’ve got a dripper system on a timer, this is the week I actually use it properly instead of ignoring the settings.
What survives without my hand on the hose, and what doesn’t
Established natives and anything with roots down past 20cm can probably get through this week without me. My tomatoes and anything I’ve transplanted in the last fortnight can’t. Seedlings with shallow roots dry out fast when the min doesn’t drop below 18.7°C, there’s no overnight dew forming to help them along. If I’ve got seedlings in the ground, I’m checking them morning and evening, not just once a day. My potted plants are the ones I’m watching hardest. A pot has no reserve underneath it the way garden soil does, so at 32.9°C it can go from damp to bone dry well before my in ground beds even notice the heat.
Wind is the one I keep forgetting about. A dry easterly across an exposed bed pulls moisture out of my soil faster than the sun does, so if my washing’s flapping hard on the line, I know my beds are drying just as fast, and the only real fix is more mulch, not more water.
